I am
starting to type this before Puigdemont, the Catalan President, has made his
eagerly awaited (or feared) speech to parliament about the results of the
referendum. As I look at the television
I see the man himself walking past a bank of flashing camera, or perhaps it
wasn’t him, but that confusion matches the sense of chaos which is ‘situation
normal’ for us over the past few months.
What good
can come of today? Well, if nothing else
we should be a little clearer about the future of the relationship between
Catalonia and Spain.
As far as I
can understand the situation today, we are in a no-win position as far as
Catalonia is concerned.
Think about
it.
If
Puigdemont does declare UDI, he will have made a statement, but its reality and
practicality will be questionable. Spain
and the central government have vowed to stop independence by any and all legal
means possible. No country has said that
it will recognize the new Republic of Catalonia. The EU has refused to play any part in the crisis
other than saying that this is an internal problem for Spain. 45 mouthed some sort of support for Bromo and
a united Spain when he grovelled his way to the White House – coincidentally a
visit to the other side of the Atlantic when his own country was going through
a fair amount of chaos, but let it pass!
The EU has said that if UDI is declared then the new Republic will be
outside the EU and will have to reapply for membership. Some of the big banks have said that they
will move their registered offices from Catalonia to elsewhere in Spain because
of the ‘uncertainty’. There have been
large demonstrations in Spain and in Barcelona by those who are opposed to
independence and who want to stay with Spain.
The country is deeply divided.
Now the
parliamentarians are entering the chamber and taking their seats, and the first
faces to be shown on the benches are not friendly to the idea of independence.
The
President of Spain has thousands of Spanish national police still stationed in
Catalonia after the debacle of the referendum and he refuses to withdraw them
until the situation has become normalized, i.e. Puigdemont stops talking about
independence and a future binding referendum.
He has also not ruled out using Section 155 (ruling directly from
Madrid) to deal with the situation in Catalonia.
Puigdemont
is now in place and we are waiting for the president of the parliament to take
her seat and start the session.
In a worst-case
scenario: Puigdemont declares UDI; Rajoy brings Section 155 into operation;
massive civil disobedience spills out on the streets of Barcelona and all the
big cities. Violence will allow Rajoy to
send in troops. Disaster.
A better
case scenario: there have been talks between the two presidents and some sort
of dialogue has been established. No
declaration of UDI is made, but Puigdemont is able to give real incentives for
people to accept a delay and a later referendum. There is still civil unrest as people thing
that they have been cheated and the result of the referendum denied.
The session
has started. Fingers crossed.
First item
is about violence against women and now the president is talking about the
referendum. The Guardian tells me that
the delay was because the CUP party (the most enthusiastic about independence)
were unhappy about his statement – which suggests that he is not going to
declare UDI. The Guardian also says that
there have been talks between the governments, that might be something to be
positive about.
He is
walking a very fine tightrope. As he
speaks the television screen is showing crowds listening to him outside
parliament. They are expecting something
real. He better not disappoint them.
Well he’s
said it. He has a mandate for
independence and forming an Independent Republic of Catalonia, but he is also
demanding that the Spanish government accepts some form of mediation. And he has agreed to delay the formal
announcement of UDI to allow negotiations.
Now it’s
the turn of a member of the party that I always refer to as a party of sluts,
the Cs, who to gain a taste of power have not found it difficult to align
themselves with the conservatives (PP) and at another time with the left (PSOE). Alliances that reflect no credit on any of
the parties.
Other
leaders of political sections in the parliament are still talking, but
international reaction is coming in and political response.
One writer
has stated that Rajoy can still invoke Section 155 of the Constitution, because
Puigdemont has not withdrawn the threat of UDI and indeed is stating that he has a
mandate to call for UDI from the result of the referendum.
A rather
more real threat points towards the reason for the delay in Puigdemont making
his speech – the position of CUP. If
these passionate independentistas are unhappy about the delay, then they could
break their alliance with Puigdemont’s party and that would take his majority
away.
My view,
for what it is worth, is based on watching Spanish politicians at work - and
especially the politicians of the ruling party PP.
As I have
said before elsewhere, PP as a party does not seem to be bound to the normal
parliamentary and ethical considerations that I have noted through the years
with British politics. In Spain
politicians do not seem to resign when the evidence against them for their
wrongdoings is shocking. They dig in and
wait for it to pass. No matter how
blatant, how damning the evidence is against them, they rely on the fact that
they are the ruling party and they have their grubby mitts on the levers of
power.
So,
although Puigdemont’s delay is a worthwhile political offer to avert possible
chaos, I very much doubt that Rajoy will sense anything much more than a
suggestion of possible victory for him.
He has put his ‘reputation’ on the line and since that and his party are
a damn sight more important to him than any abstract concept of ‘the people’ he
could well just tough it out.
Everything
is still to play for. And could, and
probably will be spread out against the next few weeks.
And we all know what and who benefits from
uncertainty.
