Watching choices being fudged

 

I am starting to type this before Puigdemont, the Catalan President, has made his eagerly awaited (or feared) speech to parliament about the results of the referendum.  As I look at the television I see the man himself walking past a bank of flashing camera, or perhaps it wasn’t him, but that confusion matches the sense of chaos which is ‘situation normal’ for us over the past few months.

What good can come of today?  Well, if nothing else we should be a little clearer about the future of the relationship between Catalonia and Spain.

As far as I can understand the situation today, we are in a no-win position as far as Catalonia is concerned. 

 

Think about it. 

 

If Puigdemont does declare UDI, he will have made a statement, but its reality and practicality will be questionable.  Spain and the central government have vowed to stop independence by any and all legal means possible.  No country has said that it will recognize the new Republic of Catalonia.  The EU has refused to play any part in the crisis other than saying that this is an internal problem for Spain.  45 mouthed some sort of support for Bromo and a united Spain when he grovelled his way to the White House – coincidentally a visit to the other side of the Atlantic when his own country was going through a fair amount of chaos, but let it pass!  The EU has said that if UDI is declared then the new Republic will be outside the EU and will have to reapply for membership.  Some of the big banks have said that they will move their registered offices from Catalonia to elsewhere in Spain because of the ‘uncertainty’.  There have been large demonstrations in Spain and in Barcelona by those who are opposed to independence and who want to stay with Spain.  The country is deeply divided.

Now the parliamentarians are entering the chamber and taking their seats, and the first faces to be shown on the benches are not friendly to the idea of independence.

The President of Spain has thousands of Spanish national police still stationed in Catalonia after the debacle of the referendum and he refuses to withdraw them until the situation has become normalized, i.e. Puigdemont stops talking about independence and a future binding referendum.  He has also not ruled out using Section 155 (ruling directly from Madrid) to deal with the situation in Catalonia.

Puigdemont is now in place and we are waiting for the president of the parliament to take her seat and start the session.

In a worst-case scenario: Puigdemont declares UDI; Rajoy brings Section 155 into operation; massive civil disobedience spills out on the streets of Barcelona and all the big cities.  Violence will allow Rajoy to send in troops.  Disaster.

A better case scenario: there have been talks between the two presidents and some sort of dialogue has been established.  No declaration of UDI is made, but Puigdemont is able to give real incentives for people to accept a delay and a later referendum.  There is still civil unrest as people thing that they have been cheated and the result of the referendum denied.

The session has started.  Fingers crossed.

First item is about violence against women and now the president is talking about the referendum.  The Guardian tells me that the delay was because the CUP party (the most enthusiastic about independence) were unhappy about his statement – which suggests that he is not going to declare UDI.  The Guardian also says that there have been talks between the governments, that might be something to be positive about.

He is walking a very fine tightrope.  As he speaks the television screen is showing crowds listening to him outside parliament.  They are expecting something real.  He better not disappoint them.

Well he’s said it.  He has a mandate for independence and forming an Independent Republic of Catalonia, but he is also demanding that the Spanish government accepts some form of mediation.  And he has agreed to delay the formal announcement of UDI to allow negotiations.

Now it’s the turn of a member of the party that I always refer to as a party of sluts, the Cs, who to gain a taste of power have not found it difficult to align themselves with the conservatives (PP) and at another time with the left (PSOE).  Alliances that reflect no credit on any of the parties.

Other leaders of political sections in the parliament are still talking, but international reaction is coming in and political response.

One writer has stated that Rajoy can still invoke Section 155 of the Constitution, because Puigdemont has not withdrawn the threat of UDI and indeed is stating that he has a mandate to call for UDI from the result of the referendum.

A rather more real threat points towards the reason for the delay in Puigdemont making his speech – the position of CUP.  If these passionate independentistas are unhappy about the delay, then they could break their alliance with Puigdemont’s party and that would take his majority away.

My view, for what it is worth, is based on watching Spanish politicians at work - and especially the politicians of the ruling party PP. 

 

As I have said before elsewhere, PP as a party does not seem to be bound to the normal parliamentary and ethical considerations that I have noted through the years with British politics.  In Spain politicians do not seem to resign when the evidence against them for their wrongdoings is shocking.  They dig in and wait for it to pass.  No matter how blatant, how damning the evidence is against them, they rely on the fact that they are the ruling party and they have their grubby mitts on the levers of power. 

 

So, although Puigdemont’s delay is a worthwhile political offer to avert possible chaos, I very much doubt that Rajoy will sense anything much more than a suggestion of possible victory for him.  He has put his ‘reputation’ on the line and since that and his party are a damn sight more important to him than any abstract concept of ‘the people’ he could well just tough it out.

Everything is still to play for.  And could, and probably will be spread out against the next few weeks.   

And we all know what and who benefits from uncertainty.