What next?

 

The Day After The Night Before Syndrome has struck the political ruling class in Spain. 

They had a worrying few hours, as it seemed that their Master Plan to stymie the onrush of the independent movement in Catalonia had disastrously backfired, and then it was confirmed that far from being stopped, the independence parties had managed to retain their absolute majority in the new parliament of Catalonia.

How to spin the disaster? 

The Spanish ruling PP party did exceptionally disastrously in Catalonia: they lost 11 of their seats and now have the shaming total of 3 (three) seats in the new parliament!  And even more humiliatingly, they fail to justify the numbers to be considered a separate group and are now lumped in with the minor parties in the ‘mixed group’ of parliamentarians.

But there was one bright spot for the woefully inadequate political leader Rajoy to go on about.  The fairly new right wing party of Cs gained 25.4 of the votes and 37 seats and will be the largest single party in parliament.  But an absolute majority is 68 seats and so they are nowhere near that number.  If they were to go into coalition they could count of the mighty support of the party with whom they slavishly vote with nationally, PP - so that boosts their total by 3 (sic.) to 40, still 28 seats short of an absolute majority.

They might be able to use the votes of the Catalan ‘socialists’ PSC, as PSC have allied themselves with their natural enemies of PP and Cs against the independence movement in Catalonia.  PSC gained 17 seats, so if they voted with PP and Cs the total strength would be 57, still 11 short of an absolute majority. 

The only other party which is opposed to independence for Catalonia (though they do advocate a binding referendum on Catalan independence some time in the future) is Comú, the Catalan version of Podemos.  Comú is more left wing than the other parties in this grouping and is a very, very uncomfortable bedfellow, even if they could be persuaded to join such an unholy alliance.  And even if they did, their 8 seats would give a final total for the anti-independence grouping of 65 - 3 short of an absolute majority.

On the other side: JxC with 34 seats; ERC with 32 and CUP with 4, make a total of 70 - 2 over an overall majority.  They win.

So, our exiled President in Belgium has offered talks with Rajoy anywhere in Europe other than Spain (where he would be arrested as soon as he set foot on Spanish soil) to start the political dialogue.  This is a situation that needs a political solution.

Rajoy has refused.  Or rather he has offered talks, or as he puts it in his alternative universe, “continued dialogue” (!) as long as the Catalan side is legal i.e. have rejected the idea of independence.  This is a sort of Catch-22 situation where the reason that there is a problem is the only thing that can’t be talked about in trying to resolve it.

I sometimes wonder if Rajoy doesn’t have some orange sash wearing Northern Ireland protestant unionist blood in him somewhere as the only word that he can say (and does with boring regularity) with absolute confidence is, “No!”

Our Spanish “entirely independent legal system” (sic) has stated that it has its sights on other rebellious, seditious and criminal persons of interest who all happen to be leaders of independence groupings.  As some of our political leaders are already political prisoners we can see where this is going.

As these political prisoners have now been elected to the new parliament, how is that going to work?  Are the imprisoned parliamentarians going to be ferried to the parliament building in prison vans and taken back to prison at the end of the day?  How is our likely president going to function when he is in exile in Belgium?  How will the voting take place?  Will the prisoners be allowed to vote?  Is that how Rajoy hopes to reduce the absolute majority of the independence parties to allow more ‘friendly’ fellow travellers to take over?

Rajoy has already said that he will ready and willing to talk to the ‘winner’ of the election in Catalonia: the leader of the Cs.  This is not the way forward.  Unfortunately Rajoy is too politically myopic to see any way forward but his own.

The New Year will bring the first meeting of the new parliament. 

Who knows what might have happened before the vote for the next president!

Everything is still to play for.

A new day?

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THURSDAY 21ST DECEMBER 4.45 PM

Walking towards the entrance of our polling station in Castelldefels we were met by a tall gentleman who had obviously just voted.  He was striding towards us with a look of ferocious distain and contempt on his face, emotions that might be explained by the fact that he was draped in a large Spanish flag.  In the metropolitan area of Barcelona.  In Catalonia.  A country recently ‘taken over’ by the right wing minority government of PP.  It seemed to us that the wearing of the flag was a deliberate provocation, but Catalans are too canny to rise to such obvious and childish challenges.

Given his pugnacious demeanour, I did wonder how his bedecked frame had been received in the crowded room where the actual ballot boxes were.  Although there are many non-Catalans in Castelldefels, there is still a majority of ‘native’ inhabitants for whom the Spanish flag paraded in such an obvious and flagrant way will either recall direct memories of the Dictatorship and the suppression of Catalan identity, or will emphasise more recent memories of Spanish state repression.  In any case, it was a crass thing to do - but PP and the Spanish state are good at doing things to show that they are deliberately tone deaf to the aspirations of Catalans.

Toni’s actual vote was, however, unexceptional - and he was even ushered to the front of the queue as the half of the alphabet that contained his name had an empty desk available for him to register!  So in and out in a couple of minutes.  Job completed, duty done.

Now the waiting to see what other voters thought their duty was!

There are beginning to be accounts of irregularities in polling stations - but at this stage it is difficult to know whether the events are run-of-the-mill incompetence or something more sinister.

There have been reports of envelopes being pre-stuffed with the list of Cs. 

Perhaps I should explain that sentence.  You do not vote by putting a cross next to your choices.  You can choose any of the printed ‘lists’ that are stacked on tables in the polling station, put forward by the different parties.  Each party list has a series of numbered names and, depending on the number of votes cast for each party, a proportion of those on the list will be elected.  It follow that if you are Number 1 on the list you are more or less guaranteed to be elected; the lower down the list you are, your chances of election depend on the number of votes cast for your party.

There are stringent rules about the elections, and votes can be declared null and void if the rules are not followed strictly.  One rule states that you can only have one list in your envelope when you put it into the ballot box.  If by mistake you put two copies of your party list then your vote will be null.  It turns out that in one part of Catalonia some of the envelopes were pre-stuffed with a Cs party list, so if a voter put their list in the envelope without realizing that there was a list already there, their vote would be cancelled.  I am still waiting to hear confirmation of this irregularity.

In another small town the lists of one of the independence parties were missing in the polling station.  That too is being investigated.

I think, and quite reasonably, that there is a level of mistrust on all sides about how this election is going to be administrated.  Remember the election is being run by a corrupt right wing minority Spanish government that has sacked the entire Catalan government and taken over the reins of power itself.  They have everything to lose if Catalonia votes for independence and they are running the election!

The corrupt right wing minority Spanish government has refused international observers to monitor the election and the counting and so the independence parties have mounted an operation to try and observe every stage of the election to try and ensure that there is no widespread fraud.

The right wing Spanish media and press have been one sided in favouring Cs (the right wing, PP supporting, big business financed party) as the best way of getting a PP friendly government in Catalonia.  I sincerely hope that their underhand tactics work against them and Cs are treated with the contempt by the voters that they richly deserve.

It’s now early afternoon and there is a certain calm about the day.  It is only in the evening when people leave work and vote that we might be able to gain a clearer view of what is happening in the country.

THURSDAY 21st DECEMBER 11.40 PM

Well, 97.9% of the votes are in and the independent parties have won an absolute majority.  But.  The party with the largest share of the vote is Cs.

I have had to start a new paragraph because I feel positively dirty admitting that the people among whom I live could vote for such an apology for a political objective.  This single issue party, founded to keep Catalonia in Spain has expanded itself to become a national party with the aid of shady backers, big business and prejudice.

I am appalled that such a party has become, or rather has maintained its position as the opposition in Parliament.

I have to keep reminding myself that the independence parties have an absolute majority to take away the bitter taste of Cs 'success'.

How did it come about?  Well, there are many non Catalans in Catalonia.  Some of them are recent citizens, but others are second or third generation Spaniards who originally came to Catalonia for work and a better way of life than in their home regions.  We have numbers of immigrants from Africa and from South America who have come to an industrial centres like Barcelona and Catalonia.

Just like Britain, the economy of Catalonia depends on an influx of immigrants to keep things running.  Perhaps these people feel more links with a wider Spain than with a Catalan republic.

I suppose you could also say that this electoral campaign was hardly equal for all parties.  Cs had the tacit support of PP with whom they work and vote.  They also had the clear support of most of the national media and most of the newspapers.  On the other hand, our leaders are imprisoned or in exile and our access to the media was obviously limited.  One imprisoned leader for example is only allowed a certain number of phone calls each month and, no unreasonably the majority of them are to his wife.  He was not allowed to participate fully in the campaign and had to make do with a few recorded telephone calls replayed at meetings.  Our President has done his best to be a part of the campaign from Belgium, but it is not the same as being in the thick of things.

Given the disadvantages and the fact that the 'playing field' was distinctly not level, I think that we have done well.

It is unfortunate that Cs got more seats than the largest independence party, but the independent parties have the absolute majority and we will go forward from there.

Now the ball is in Rajoy's court.  He has not got exactly what he wanted: a clear defeat of the independence parties and the election of Cs as the ruling party.  What he has got is a friendly party with the most seats, but with no majority, whatever coalition Cs try to form - the absolute majority is with what Rajoy fears most.

The New Year will see the first meeting of the new parliament and then the fun will start.  Rajoy will probably keep Article 155 going, which gives PP full control over Catalonia.

In this election the Catalan version of PP, the party of the right wing minority Spanish government managed to get 3.9% of the popular vote - a loss of 5% from their previous dismal almost double digit showing in the last election!  And they govern us! 

¡Visca Catalunya!

It's a point of view!

Tonight on Chanel 6 we have a debate between all the candidates in the forthcoming election in Catalonia.  The election, forced on Catalonia by the minority right wing national Spanish government after they had invoked article 155 of the Constitution which gave them the power to sack the Catalan government and take over the running of the country, is for the whole parliament, but this evening we have a debate between the leaders of the different political parties.

Although there are seven podia for the debaters representing a range of opinion which stretches from the left with CUP to the right with Cs and PP, there is really only one question and one choice: independence or not?  With that basic question in mind there are three parties who have pledged to the concept of independence, all the rest are opposed. 

The opposition to independence includes PP, the right wing party of the national Spanish government who, in spite of only having a 9% popular vote have now assumed control of the Catalan government, they are aided and abetted by C’s a hard right party, as can be seen from their voting record where they have voted with or usefully abstained to help PP. 

Shamefully these wasters have been joined by the Spanish equivalent of the Labour Party in Catalonia, PSC.  This party has the word ‘Socialist’ in their title, but in their response to the problems in Catalonia I have seen little to justify their use of the concept.  On the question of independence, PSC is clearly opposed and they voted with PP and Cs to allow the imposition of 155 and the destruction of the Catalan parliament: they have been in demonstrations side by side with PP and Cs.  To their shame.

The party that most mirrors my general political attitude has been Podemos, a recently formed party with a refreshing and clean outlook.  Their attitude is one that says that there should be a binding referendum on independence for Catalonia. 

This sounds reasonable enough, but PP and the joke Rajoy have ruled out any break up of Spain and they have said that any referendum must include the whole of Spain voting, not just Catalonia!  So, although I think that Podemos has a reasonable point of view, there is no way that the political powers in the tight grip of PP (with the active help of their lickspittle lapdogs Cs) will allow any Catalan specific referendum which might lead to the break up of Spain. 

As Podemos will be in a minority, opposed by PP, Cs and PSOE, they will never have the political clout to get any real referendum to take place.  So a vote for Podemos is, in effect, a vote against independence.  They can say what they like, but there is no way that they are going to have the power to make their pious statements a reality.

The polls have not been encouraging with Cs being predicted to gain as many seats in the new parliament as the party of the exiled President!  How, in the name of the living god, can people in Catalonia vote for such a bunch of right wing sluts?  Some, I know are going to vote for PP, a decision I find frankly incomprehensible.  PSC have lost all credibility in Catalonia, and Podemos are advocating a policy that they will not be able to bring to fruition.

The man who deposed our Catalan president, the walking joke Rajoy, has already made it clear that he will not countenance any discussions with independentists, whatever the result of the election.

As I have said before, I do not trust the Spanish government, which is in control of Catalonia at the moment.  I have a real fear that the election will be stolen.  We need all eyes on the process and the counting.  The 21^st of December is going to be a pivotal day in the history of Catalonia and that of Spain!

Wish us luck!

Beggar him!

Close

Miss Havisham going up in flames in grainy blank and white in a BBC adaptation of Great Expectations was something I had to wait for as the novel unfolded week by week in its allotted TV spot in the schedules.  There were no short cuts, you had to wait.

     How different the present!  Having recently discovered that I had access to series and films via one of my subscriptions I have binge watched the first series of The Man in the High Castle – the story of what might have happened if German and Japan had been the victors in World War Two. 

In this version of reality, America has been divided between the Germans on the East Coast and the Japanese on the West, with a lawless Neutral Zone in between.

     The production values of the series are high and the detailing of each scene is replete with intelligent and satisfyingly visual suggestions as to how the reality might have worked out.

     The mixture of plots and sub plots using politics, espionage, deception and brutality to further the story line; the Resistance and its struggle against totalitarian governments; a love story; the clash of cultures – all of these elements can be found in any number of dramas, the ESP of this series is the injection of a disturbing element of Science Fiction.

     A key plot device in the action of the series is played by a series of films.  These films seem to show a different reality, one in which the Axis powers did not win the war and our version of the Allied Powers being triumphant is the subject of the films.  These films are being collected by the eponymous Man in the High Castle who may, or may not be an ageing Hitler.

     There are hints in the episodes that suggest that there might be parallel universes and that somehow or other elements from these parallel universes are leaking into the reality of the series: either that, or the whole 10 episodes of Series 1 was an elaborate dream in the Japanese Trade Minister’s mind!  As there is a Series 2 and 3(?) I don’t think that device can be used to justify another 20 episodes!

     As the series is set in the 1960s there are technological elements that jar, including the appearance of a German supersonic ‘rocket’ plane which has the delta wing formation of the late lamented Concorde.  The aircraft set looks very impressive on the ground, but I found it singularly unconvincing in flight, an odd glitch in otherwise excellent CGI.  There are also trains that use a magnetic drive – these things are anachronistic for the 1960s and might therefore strengthen the supposition that someone is able to travel between the parallel universes and take technology from a ‘future’ world or a parallel but more advance one and use knowledge to boost technology in the reality of the series.

     I have just discovered that I have access to the ten episodes of Series 2 – so that’s another day of my life given over to being hooked to the screen of my computer!

     The acting in the series is, for the most part, convincing and enjoyable to watch.  The basic premise of the plot it interesting and the production professional.  The script is sometimes indulgent and philosophical profundity can be signalled a little too obviously, but the action is engaging and such attention is given to the appearance of things that I am convinced and satisfied.

     Obviously, there are a number of questions that have been posed in this first series that might be addressed in the second.  I can’t wait to find out.  And I don’t have to, all the episodes are waiting for me just to click the mouse and enjoy!

In the same way that my typing for this blog is often displacement activity from doing my Spanish homework, so too is my choice of topic.  Much though I enjoyed watching the series above, there are more pressing things to talk about than an old TV series.  Like, for example, the present political situation in Castelldefels and Catalonia.

     The election in Catalonia is less than a month away and the political parties are gearing up for the fray.  One television station has taken to referring to the ‘Constitutional’ parties i.e. PP (Hard, corrupt right); C’s so-called ‘centre right’ but in reality, hard right as well, subsidised by business and sluttish in their approach to power; PSC (the Catalan version of PSOE, the so-called ‘socialist’ (sic.) party that has aligned itself with the right and is opposed to Catalan independence.)  Then all the other parties are lumped together under the Independent label as if it is opposed to the concept of constitutional, rather than the reading of constitutional that has been made by the other parties.

     According to the latest poll, the veracity of which I cannot vouch for, the figures show that the two ‘sides’ are fairly equally matched with neither side able to gain an overall majority.  The balance of power, according to this poll, will be held by the Catalan version of the left wing Podemos, which has declared itself opposed to independence, but in favour of a binding referendum about independence.

     The ruling (corrupt and corrupting) party of PP stands little chance of gaining more than 8 or 9 seats in Catalonia as they are cordially despised as crypto-fascist and anti-Catalan.  PP put their hopes in the sluttish C’s party which is headed by a photogenic power-hungry Catalan (allegedly) whose party was formed specifically to stop Catalan separation and was funded by big business and who once posed nude for an election poster to show that he had nothing to hide!  This apology for a party stands to gain the most in the elections.  I hope that this is not true, and Toni assures me that it won’t happen, though I am not as sanguine as he.  The traditional party of left wing opposition is PSC, the Catalan part of PSOE, unfortunately their position has been totally compromised by their national dalliance with PP to get a taste of power.  The fact that the word ‘Socialist’ forms part of their party’s title should be a standing condemnation of their actions: PSC is a party without a soul and without an ethic.  They have shared a platform with PP and C’s: they have marched with PP and C’s; they have voted with PP and C’s.  In some ways it would be fairer to call PSOE/PSC power sluts rather than the traditional political sex workers of C’s.  Whatever, they have forfeited their right to my vote.

     Which leaves my choice on the, presumably, ‘unconstitutional’ side of the political debate!  But my thoughts about the parties which comprise this element of Catalan politics can wait for next week.

    

Lunch was from our usual takeaway restaurant in Castelldefels and was well up to standard, though the owner of the restaurant urged me to look at the rotisserie where an entire suckling pig was being roasted.  It looked delicious and only cost 100 euros!  How do they do it for the money?  I think that the test of something cooked like this is that you should be able to cut the meat up with the side of a plate!  As this beast was supposed to feed eight it means that the individual portion would only cost 12 euros per person – which, thinking about it seems like good value, or at least worth it!

     The chicken that we actually had, while perfectly acceptable, was not really as spectacular as that which I left turning in the heat. 

      At least I can live with expectation!